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the weblog of multi-media consultancy broadsight www.broadsight.com thursday, september 27. 2018 nesta on predicting the future prediction is always difficult, said yogi berra, especially about the future. however, it's something we do quite a bit of (have you seen our work on election prediction - brexit, trump, uk 2017, germany etc - we got them all right) so i went along to the nesta futurescoping 101 event on this last night see what they had that i could steal to offer. there were 4 talks on various ways of predicting the future, or more accurately 4 ways of making scenarios (reading entrails of dead animals is still outre, but with the return to the age of unreason we are seeing i wouln't be surprised it it makes a comeback, albeit maybe with dead plants). anyway, in summary they covered these 4 approaches: speculative design - cat drew speculative design is primarily the use of physical things to provoke debate, rather than using documents/words/numbers etc. for example cat did one session on blockchain visualisation using a blood transfusion drone made of felt and other blue petery stuff to stimulate thoughts of what (electronic vampire?) blood donation services may be like. whether you agree with the approach or not (in my experience with tech you do often do have to build a future thing for people to be able to think concretely about, and this looks useful for that - but it's risky to abstract the results too far without doing the hard sums....) she also noted some things that are important to scenario building no matter what your approach, viz: - multidisciplinary teams - can't be fantasy, don't make it too remote - base it on evidence of research - suspend belief but no trickery games and simulation - florence engasser simulation and game design are more my comfort zone area, so to an extent i knew more abot this approach than the others - anyway, it was all sensible stuff and florence noted the main problems one hits with respect to modelling complex and unpredictable things (aka most future problems), and the benefits. as she notes, simulation helps in a number of ways: - model the trade-offs and outcomes (and some aspects often become clear in the dynamics of the model) - visualisation makes it easy to see things - collaboration - seeing things the same way (modelling often is a good way to bring people up to speed with a situation) - experimentation - safe place to experiment with changing factors and assumptions her summary of how to make it work was good, i liked the checklist of what a simulation or game needs, not so much the first 3 which are almost a given, but the last 3 which are often neglected by techie types, and are part of the "soft factors" that are so essential: - objectives (getting these right is non trivial in my experience) - mechanics (wish she'd said more on what they do here) - balance between complex and simple (again critical for model acceptance) - narrative for the scenarios - choices people can make - a journey, putting it all together what i didn't know is there are a bunch of nesta games in existence or production: - innovate - superbug - consortium inclusive place based futures - harry armstrong this was about how to have inclusive conversations with people about changes to their cities, buildings etc. typically top doesn solution go awry, it's better to get the locals involved for a variety of reasons and avert failure: - appeal to democratic/ethical notions to get buy in - to drive collective action needs a shared vision - driving nclusion of a large number can show wider benefits to make the project more attractive, and show flaws and avert failure that a small group won't see examples used were the newcastle 2065 future city strategy and the island of aruba's 2000+ strategy for itself. looking at the latter: - aruba in the early noughties took at collective approach for its future strategy and engaged 60% of the island's c 100 000 population, - they used the appreciative inquiry approach (discover, dream,design, deliver ) - then went on with scenario planning approach, across 10 workstreams what interested me about this example is that aruba had a change of govt during the process and teh new people wanted to change or cancel some of the streams, but concerted citizen action forced their continuation - now that is buy in lessons about this approach are salutary: - works if it's authentic, - don't do it if you won't act, expectation raising can be risky - needs buy in from major players - need neutral spaces for trust - need to manage "the usual suspects" being involved diy scenarios - david finnigan the approach here is to acting out a scenario as a short play or event. his view is that a scenario is an imagined vision - doesn't have to be correct, but you need a range including a best and worst. so far same old same old, but his approach is to use the play as a vehicle to slip in the assumptions and outcomes as just part of teh narrative. this evening he acted out making a nature documentary in the future, but members of the audience had to answer assumptions on the role of nature reserves in the future, impact of tourism, and the various other assumptions about the future, using the play-acting as a vehicle to sideways slide in the assumptions of the real scenario, ie the setup conditions as part of the building the story, and the edenouemaent is anarrative end of teh reults of the various 2x2 essumption matrices. overall impression - the evening seemed a bit heavy on the qualitative and light on the quantitative, my experience is at some point someone with the power of decision making says "show me the numbers behind the grand vision" (which is where simulation type modelling has an advantage), so while i could see how some of the more narrative approaches could really help the envisioning. i think - as cat noted in the first talk - always base your scenarios on evidence of research. posted by alan patrick at 13:17 | comments (2) | trackbacks (0) 1120 hits -- -- tuesday, november 14. 2017 twitter is for bullet points, not essays so, twitter has expanded the 140 character limit to 280 for all users. i've used it for a week or so like this, and overall what i've found is: - it's useful as you don't have to artificially concatenate twts, and you can be clearer in what you mean - if you stick to around 140 characters and stick to the point, it flows as well as the original. but... - some users (too many) put no new, useful information in the extra 50%, the signal-to-noise ratio is effectively halved - a pageful of 280 character twts is half as much information as one of 140 character twts, and given too many are full of woffle it can be even worse. - a 280 character tweet needs some formatting functions to be easy to read. now no doubt twitter could put in basic editing functions, but this seems to be adding complexity to a system where the major attraction is speed and simplicity. imo twitter is for fast-to-read bullet point information, not micro-essays, and especially not micro-essays by the verbose. posted by alan patrick at 06:51 | comment (1) | trackbacks (0) 11210 hits -- -- saturday, november 11. 2017 dulce et decorum est, pro patria mori....but not such a good plan if you don't lest we never forget, not all unknown soldiers are dead (rogers cartoon, pittsburgh post-gazette) posted by alan patrick at 11:02 | comments (0) | trackbacks (0) 11066 hits -- -- tuesday, october 31. 2017 adversarial perturbation - fooling ai image processing, one pixel at a time cat registering as guacamole on google inception v3 covered in boingboing and labsix- what happens when people start to spoof image processing algorithms. .can you make a cat look like guacamole ? three researchers from kyushu university have published a paper describing a means of reliably fooling ai-based image classifiers with a single well-placed pixel. it's part of a wider field of "adversarial perturbation" to disrupt machine-learning m

URL analysis for broadstuff.com

http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2964-fake-news-about-fake-news,-or-how-do-i-hire-those-russians.html
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2963-how-much-does-it-cost-to-mine-1-bitcoin-1,200!.html#trackbacks
http://www.broadstuff.com/categories/26-ebooks-ereaders
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2966-czech-election-our-predictive-model-correctish-again.html
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2963-how-much-does-it-cost-to-mine-1-bitcoin-1,200!.html#comments
http://www.broadstuff.com/categories/8-gaming-virtual-worlds
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/1920-jan-moir,-the-web,-free-speech-and-the-wisdom-of-mobs.html
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2906-tay-savant-ai-chatbot-says-hello-world-what-could-go-wrong.html
http://www.broadstuff.com/categories/23-enterprise-20social-business
http://www.broadstuff.com/categories/11-web-services-cloud-computing
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2967-dulce-et-decorum-est,-pro-patria-mori....but-not-such-a-good-plan-if-you-dont.html#comments
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2833-asshole-density-as-a-measure-of-bubbles.html
http://www.broadstuff.com/categories/19-mobile-web-multimedia
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2969-nesta-on-predicting-the-future.html#comments
http://www.broadstuff.com/archives/2961-predicting-6-elections-correctly-using-data-analytics,-despite-the-polls-and-pundits-some-lessons.html#trackbacks
bbc.co.uk
nesta.org.uk

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Domain Name: BROADSTUFF.COM
Registry Domain ID: 585368321_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN
Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.tucows.com
Registrar URL: http://www.tucows.com
Updated Date: 2018-08-09T15:00:58Z
Creation Date: 2006-09-08T13:34:27Z
Registry Expiry Date: 2019-09-08T13:34:27Z
Registrar: Tucows Domains Inc.
Registrar IANA ID: 69
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Domain Status: clientUpdateProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientUpdateProhibited
Name Server: NS1.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
Name Server: NS2.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
Name Server: NS3.LIVEDNS.CO.UK
DNSSEC: unsigned
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  REGISTRAR Tucows Domains Inc.

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  SERVER com.whois-servers.net

  ARGS domain =broadstuff.com

  PORT 43

  TYPE domain

DOMAIN

  NAME broadstuff.com

  CHANGED 2018-08-09

  CREATED 2006-09-08

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  NS1.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 217.160.81.244

  NS2.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 217.160.82.244

  NS3.LIVEDNS.CO.UK 217.160.83.244

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